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25/09/2026 09:00

Positive atmosphere at China-U.S. summit exceeds expectations, but rising U.S. bond yields may pressure Hang Seng Index during Mid-Autumn period

  《ET Net News Agency, September 25》Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump held talks at the White House on the 24th. Xi Jinping expressed hope that the U.S. will uphold its correct stance opposing "Taiwan independence" and handle Taiwan-related issues prudently. He stated that the new positioning of constructive strategic stability in China-U.S. relations reflects the reality of bilateral ties and embodies expectations for the future, marking an important step toward the right way for the two countries to interact. Both sides should transform this vision into action and create a more stable, healthy, and sustainable future for China-U.S. relations.

  On AI, Xi Jinping noted that while China and the U.S. compete in AI, they can also cooperate, and should leverage their respective strengths rather than build barriers against each other. Both sides could continue AI dialogues to exchange views on related risks and benefits and jointly prevent the abuse of artificial intelligence. Trump stated that both the U.S. and China wish to maintain the current state of artificial intelligence and said China aligns with the U.S. on the issue of "super intelligence."

  On trade, Trump said officials from both countries have been working to promote a more balanced trade relationship, including opening new market access channels for American farmers and ranchers.

  While no major surprises emerged from the China-U.S. summit, both sides conveyed goodwill in tone. The two leaders simultaneously referenced their joint victory during World War II, likely setting a tone of "competition rather than confrontation," easing market concerns over a narrative of China-U.S. confrontation.

*A-shares closed for holiday, Northbound flow paused today, rising bond yields to pressure tech stocks*

  The Hang Seng Index yesterday dipped to 24,648, affecting two nearby bull warrant strike price ranges, likely triggering the forced redemption of over a thousand bull warrants. However, bulls remain undeterred, continuing to accumulate positions across multiple ranges. The total number of outstanding bull warrants only decreased by a few hundred to 9,431, with the heaviest concentration remaining in the 24,300 to 24,399 range, increasing to 1,110 contracts. Bear warrants slightly increased by several dozen, mainly concentrated in three newly issued 100-point ranges of 24,800 to 25,099, adding a total of 322 contracts. The heaviest bear warrant concentration remains low, with only 645 contracts.

  The Singapore HS50 index, known as the "night session futures," is currently down 166 points at 24,591, 170 points below the spot, suggesting the Hang Seng Index will likely open over 100 points lower.

  Overnight, the yield on U.S. 30-year long-term bonds rose to 5.491%, the highest since 2004; the 10-year yield also reached 5.225%, the highest since 2007. Additionally, oil prices rose for a second consecutive day, with Brent crude rising 3.41% to close at $106.6. New York Federal Reserve President Williams stated that due to high energy prices and AI-driven investment boosting demand, the Fed still has much work to do in reducing inflation, implying further rate hikes may be necessary. High inflation pressures are boosting rate hike expectations, and rising long-term bond yields continue to pressure tech stocks. Coupled with A-shares closing for the Mid-Autumn holiday and the suspension of Stock Connect, despite the positive atmosphere at the China-U.S. summit, the Hang Seng Index is expected to remain under downward pressure today, finding support near the 24,500 level.

*Initial jobless claims lower than expected, Dow falls while Nasdaq holds steady*

  The latest weekly U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 1,000 to 197,000, the lowest since July, slightly below the expected 200,000. However, Iran threatened that if attacked again by the U.S. or Israel, it would expand the Middle East conflict into the Indian Ocean and other regions. Overnight oil prices continued to rise, coupled with unabated bond yield increases, pushing the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to a 19-year high. U.S. stocks were mostly soft on Thursday, with the Dow closing at 51,349, down 161 points or 0.31%; the S&P 500 edged down 0.02% to 7,704; the Nasdaq turned up 0.01% to 26,939.
         
*Night session futures at over 100-point discount, U.S.-listed Chinese stocks remain weak*

  The Hang Seng Golden Dragon Index, reflecting the performance of U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, fell 0.67%. Alibaba dropped 0.15% to $110.63; JD.com fell 1.51% to $26.75; Baidu declined 1.89% to $88.08; Li Auto rose 0.68% to $11.78; XPeng dropped 0.39% to $10.25; NIO fell 1.09% to $3.63; Bilibili declined 1.33% to $14.81.

  The Hang Seng Index night session futures closed at 24,627, down 64 points, at a 134-point discount. In overnight ADR trading, Meituan (03690) ADR was 0.85% lower than its Hong Kong shares, equivalent to HK$71.6; CK Hutchison (00001) ADR was 0.97% lower, equivalent to HK$67.4; Tencent (00700) ADR was 0.56% lower, equivalent to HK$435.9; Xiaomi (01810) ADR was 0.34% lower, equivalent to HK$26.5; HKEX (00388) ADR was 0.23% lower, equivalent to HK$392.5; HSBC (00005) ADR was 0.13% higher, equivalent to HK$157.1; AIA (01299) ADR was 0.09% lower, equivalent to HK$75.7. (vs)

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